With the hope that the year ahead will gradually bring a return to something resembling “normalcy,” colleges and universities are among the many organizations developing strategies that, in their case, could enable them to reopen campuses across the country.

To that end, for a recent study, experts in epidemic modeling leveraged data analytics models to   help project effective mitigation strategies to keep both infections and costs under control.

For the study, the results of which have been published in Annals of Internal Medicine, investigators from Brigham and Women's Hospital, Massachusetts General Hospital and Case Western Reserve University used the Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model to perform their study, finding that combining a mandatory mask-wearing policy with extensive social distancing would prevent 87 percent of infections among students and faculty.

"This next semester represents a critical time in the pandemic. While the vaccine rollout has begun, it is unlikely that most college students will be eligible for the vaccine until late in the spring semester," said lead author Elena Losina, PhD, Director of the Policy and Innovation eValuations in Orthopedic Treatments (PIVOT) Center at the Brigham, in a press release. "However, our modeling shows that colleges and universities can put effective programs in place to mitigate infections. This analysis is designed to help individuals and institutions make decisions using a formal, data-driven approach.”

To determine the most effective strategies for reducing COVID-19 cases on college campuses, the team evaluated 24 mitigation strategies based on four approaches: social distancing, mask-wearing policies, isolation, and laboratory testing. Researchers then compared results from a minimal social distancing program, in which only large gatherings such as sporting events or concerts were cancelled, and an extensive social distancing program, where all large classes and 50 percent of smaller classes were delivered online.

According to the report, the most successful strategy would be to combine social distancing and masking, which would prevent 87 percent of infections among students and faculty and would cost $170 per infection prevented.

The report also noted that, even if campuses remain closed, there would likely be infections among faculty acquired from the surrounding community, as well as infections among students who return to live off campus in and around college towns. 

Other determinations from the study included:

    •    Without any mitigation efforts, approximately 75 percent of students and 16 percent of faculty would become infected on a college campus.

    •    Closing the campus would reduce student infections by 63 percent, with most infections coming from those students living off campus.

    •    With only minimal social distancing, student infections would be reduced by only 16 percent.

"Extensive social distancing in college campuses with a hybrid educational system, combined with a mandatory mask-wearing policy, can prevent the vast majority of COVID-19 cases on college campuses,” said co-senior author Pooyan Kazemian, PhD, an assistant professor of operations in the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University.